Hamas terror in Israel: "Everyone is bracing for a prolonged war"
2023-10-20 Since the brutal attacks by the Palestinian terror organisation on 7 October, nothing in Israel has been the same. Can the Middle East ever find peace? A conversation with Prof. Dr Tobias Lenz, Professor of International Relations.
- What is the situation in Israel?
- I spoke to a colleague from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem on the phone. Actually, like at German universities, the lecture period in Israel should start now. The universities and schools are closed. They are supposed to reopen in three weeks at the earliest. But no one expects that. The country is shut down. There is an eerie calm, broken only by bomb alarms. Everyone is preparing for a prolonged war.
- Which can no longer be averted?
- There is a deep sense of insecurity. Everyone in Israel agrees that the Hamas attacks mark a turning point. In the sense of: Nothing is as it was before. Everyone is shocked by the brutality and inhumanity of these attacks; and unsettled by the government's inability to protect its citizens. The task now is to restore the country's military deterrent capability, which has suffered massively as a result of the attack. Even very left-leaning Israelis believe that this is necessary to secure the country's existence. However, there are different views on how exactly this is to be done.
- How is this to be assessed in terms of international law?
- International law permits self-defence, but this is subject to the principle of proportionality. This means that self-defence may only serve to eliminate the attack and must be proportionate to the damage suffered. What this means in concrete cases is the subject of much debate. Irrespective of this, there is international humanitarian law, which knows neither attackers nor attacked. This includes the protection of civilians and the prohibition of expulsions. Palestinians therefore criticise Israel's demand to vacate the northern Gaza Strip. Eviction is suspected.
- Israel was founded on 14 May 1948. On the same day, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq and Syria declared war on the young state. Since then, there have been repeated conflicts. Will the region ever find peace?
- Until 20 years ago, a one-state solution was one of the options discussed to bring peace to the region. Arguments in favour of this were the size of Israel: the area was too small to divide it meaningfully and the Gaza Strip was not viable as a single country. The idea was a federal state with strong rights of self-determination for the Palestinians. But that option is dead. No one can imagine living together in a state with the enemy on the other side. The hatred and mutual injuries run too deep.
- Is a two-state solution possible?
- Even a two-state solution like the one the Oslo peace negotiations were aiming for is difficult. There are many unanswered questions: What happens to the refugees who have fled the various wars to other areas? What happens to the settlers in the West Bank? The current government has massively expanded settlement construction and is itself tolerating the expansion of illegal settlements. Without a complete evacuation of the settlements in the West Bank, however, a peace solution is inconceivable. A sovereign Palestine would probably have an army; Israel will not want that. However, these difficulties could be solved in negotiations through compromises by both sides. In my opinion, however, the biggest obstacle is the question of how the path to implementing a two-state solution could be shaped. Who will take the first step in implementation? In the current climate of mutual mistrust, no one wants to take that first step. Let alone sit down at the table for negotiations.
- Can the conflict spread beyond Israel's borders?
- So far, Hezbollah has kept a relatively low profile. But what happens if the Israelis are actually in the Gaza Strip with ground troops? For Israel, Hezbollah is more dangerous than Hamas because it is better equipped militarily. Both terrorist organisations are supported by Iran, but it is easier to smuggle weapons into Lebanon than into the sealed-off Gaza Strip. There is also a danger that the Israelis will be attacked from the Syrian side.
Less dangerous, but more likely, are attacks in and from the West Bank. It is also open how long the Arab citizens of Israel will remain quiet. So there could be clashes within the country. - Some talk shows are discussing the danger of a world war.
- No, I don't see that. I don't think the danger of a world war is particularly high. All parties beyond this conflict are interested in containing the conflict. That is also Olaf Scholz's policy, to correctly see that there is no further escalation.
- Thank you very much for the interview!