Controversy in the Bundestag: “The firewall has not yet fallen”

Prof. Engler, has Friedrich Merz's maneuver strengthened the AfD?

A study by the University of Mannheim analyzed all elections since the late 1970s and shows that when centrist parties – on the left or the right – adopt positions of right-wing populist parties, they do not win back votes. Voters stick with the 'original'. On the contrary, they even risk that more people will vote for the right-wing populists. Many other studies also point in this direction.

For example, a recent experimental study shows that when conservative parties make right-wing populist statements, we are more likely to agree with them than when right-wing populists express these opinions. The debate of recent weeks is therefore more likely to lead to a further normalization of the AfD. Conservative parties in particular are central to legitimizing discourses on migration.

Did Friedrich Merz perhaps believe that he could win back votes from the AfD shortly before the federal election?

It may well be that Mr. Merz believed this. We have also observed this behavior in Olaf Scholz. He has also moved to the right in the migration debate. In a podcast, he even mentioned that he is aware of the studies, but does not believe it. It seems to me that many politicians are currently listening more to their gut feeling, which certainly proves them right on other topics and in other policy areas. But in doing so, they underestimate the process of normalization. Right-wing populists are different from other parties in that it's not just a matter of moving closer to them ideologically and hoping that a few voters will come over to us. What the centrist politicians don't see is that many citizens still vote for them precisely because the AfD seems too radical – as a danger to the country's future. But if they align themselves with the AfD's positions and work with them, this perception can change.

How has discourse changed over the course of history?

For a long time, the kind of anti-minority rhetoric we hear from right-wing populists today was not tolerated, either by politicians or by society. This marginalized radical right-wing parties. They were stigmatized. Even people with xenophobic attitudes – who, incidentally, have always existed and whose share is no greater today than it used to be – therefore often did not vote for them. Today, the discourse has generally shifted to the right. Conservatives and social democrats are taking positions on migration that were only taken by right-wingers 20 years ago. There is no longer any shame in voting for right-wing radical parties.

How long have you been observing this trend in Germany?

Right-wing populist parties in Europe have been on the rise again since the late 1980s and have grown stronger since then, for example in Switzerland or Austria. In Germany, we were only able to observe this change after 2015. With Pegida, there were open protests, and the right-wing elites showed: 'We can win votes there'. For a long time, there was discussion about whether a right-wing populist party was even possible in Germany due to the country's history. However, I maintain that normalization in Germany has not yet progressed as far as it has in many other countries – this is shown once again by the numerous and large protests of the last few days and weeks.

Despite the approval of the AfD, Friedrich Merz has failed with the second vote. So is the firewall still standing?

Not all CDU members are convinced by Merz's tactics. This is shown by the abstentions in their own ranks. Angela Merkel's statement also shows that Friedrich Merz's policy could put the CDU to the test in the long term. In Austria, too, there are two opinions within the ÖVP regarding the coalition with the FPÖ – precisely because previous coalitions with the FPÖ failed due to dubious statements and actions by its ministers. But Germany is not as far along as Austria. The firewall is still standing, at least in part.

Shortly after the two votes in the Bundestag, hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets. Can an active civil society prevent the normalization of the far right?

We can measure an effect in research, but it's not very large. Nevertheless, these people are sending a clear signal against normalization. They show that the AfD is not like any other party. The norms of the post-war period still apply.

Thank you for the conversation!