Ukraine war – Dr Alexandr Burilkov: ‘No peace without deterrence’
2024-10-15 Together with researchers from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, political scientist Dr Alexandr Burilkov compared the arms production of Germany and Russia: The former Soviet republic not only has far more weapons in relation to its population than Germany, but also a state-run, research-intensive arms industry that produces far faster than the West does, says Alexandr Burilkov, who argues that European countries must join forces – and arm themselves faster.
Dr. Burilkov, Germany has been disarming over the decades. How do you assess the numbers?
One example: In 1990, at the end of the Cold War, the Bundeswehr had 4,167 tanks; in 2004, there were still 2,398. Today, there are 339. I consider this development to be worrying, because this trend affects all types of weapons – especially after a lot of material was delivered to Ukraine.
How well equipped is Russia in comparison?
At the beginning of the war, the Russian military was not fully modernized and fought with many older, Soviet-era weapons. These older systems are increasingly replaced with modern ones. There is a state-led, research-intensive arms industry. The newly developed weapons are being tested in Ukraine, so to speak. Conversely, the Russians can copy innovations coming out of Ukraine in just a few weeks. If the Russian arms industry wants to build something, it can.
What was the methodology of your investigation?
We analyse which Russian units are fighting in Ukraine and what weapons systems would have to be continually provided to keep these units combat effective. Since autumn 2022 the Russian military has dramatically increased its capabilities and is now quantitatively and qualitatively superior to the Russian military of February 2022. For instance, the Russian military defeated the 2023 Ukrainian summer counter-offensive and has been on the offense on most of the 1,200km frontline since then. Using the data on Russian units fighting in Ukraine, we can estimate Russian defence production rates. For instance, in 2023 Russia produced around 1,000 tanks. In 2024, tank production will grow to 1,500. We observe similar increases for all other categories of weapons systems, such as howitzers and air defence.
What does this mean for the German arms industry?
Germany ordered in May 2023 twelve self-propelled howitzers. That's a boutique order – as is common practice in many other European countries. This national approach will not get the job done. Europe needs to upgrade together. Larger orders reduce costs. It also stabilises the defence industry in Europe and can ensure rapid economic growth: military research has often led to disruptive innovation. The internet, computers, lasers and satellites would not exist without the arms industry. So a society also benefits from research in peacetime. The Russians are leaving us behind. The situation in Ukraine is very worrying, and not only there. Europe must invest to become capable of defence.
How do you respond to people who demand fewer weapons?
Peaceful and diplomatic solutions should remain our main instruments. But revisionist actors like Russia create instability when they become hostile and hyper-militarised. It is simply prudent to be prepared. Deterrence leads to lasting peace. The Cold War never went hot. Besides, the war in Ukraine will end at some point. But Russia's arms production will not stop. It is to be expected that Russia will then export more weapons – primarily to the enemies of the West.
Thank you very much for the interview!